Shrinking Plates and Shifting Markets: How Appetite Suppressants Like GLP-1 Are Reshaping Agriculture and Water Use

I always thought that dietary changes would be the biggest reason for reduced water use worldwide in the future. I thought it would be due to reduced meat intake. I had no idea a couple of years ago that it would be due to an appetite suppressant. The good news is that we probably have no idea today what the following significant water savings change will be in a few years.

The meteoric rise of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro is doing more than shrinking waistlines—it’s shrinking food demand across the board. These medications, initially designed for managing diabetes, are now widely used for weight loss and appetite suppression. As eating habits change, so does the entire food supply chain—and, with it, agricultural water use.

Appetite Down, Water Use Down

GLP-1 medications can reduce daily caloric intake by up to 30%, according to clinical studies. Multiply that across tens of millions of Americans, and the impact on food consumption is profound:

• A 2023 Morgan Stanley report projected that GLP-1 drugs could lead to a 1% to 2% annual reduction in calorie consumption per capita over the next decade.
• Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently noted that shoppers using GLP-1s are purchasing less food overall, particularly in categories such as snacks, frozen meals, and processed foods.
• The global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, representing a significant leap and indicating sustained adoption.

And adoption is accelerating. Forecasts show that by 2035, between 7% and 15% of the U.S. population could be on GLP-1s. That equates to tens of millions of people eating less—and, in turn, farmers growing less.

The Water Cost of What We Eat

Reducing calorie intake often means cutting down on calorie-dense, water-intensive foods. Here are the approximate water footprints:

• 1 lb of beef: 1,800–2,500 gallons of water
• 1 lb of almonds: ~1,900 gallons (grown mainly in California)
• 1 lb of cheese: 600–700 gallons
• 1 lb of rice: 300 gallons
• 1 glass of wine: ~30 gallons

If the average American cuts out just one serving of beef per week, it could save tens of billions of gallons of water annually. And this is likely just the beginning.

Less Demand, Fewer Acres

Over 80% of the U.S.’s water consumption is allocated to agriculture. Irrigated land accounts for 40% of the nation’s food production. If calorie demand drops and people eat less, irrigated acreage may contract, particularly for high-input crops such as corn, alfalfa, and soy used for animal feed.

We’re already seeing signs of this:

• Nestlé has reported a decline in sales of its snack foods.
• Conagra Brands attributed a decline in frozen meal demand to the use of appetite suppression drugs.
• Tyson Foods, the nation’s largest meat processor, has closed plants as demand has softened.

This shift is not just about economics—it’s about the pressure on ecosystems. Fewer planted acres mean less need for water, fertilizers, pesticides, and energy inputs.

Not a Fad: Why This May Be Permanent

Skeptics argue that GLP-1 adoption might taper off. After all, 90% of consumers still say taste outweighs health when choosing food. There are also insurance coverage gaps, and comparisons are being made to past fads, such as low-carb and gluten-free trends, which eventually plateaued.

But GLP-1s work differently—they operate at the biological level, reducing appetite by signaling satiety in the brain and gut. Advocates point out that:

• GLP-1s resist “diet fatigue” better than behavioral interventions.
• 43% of users believe their appetite and lifestyle changes will be long-term or permanent.

Forward-Looking Players Are Already Adapting

This shift is already sparking major realignments across agriculture and food retail:

• Dairy producers are launching genetic rebalancing programs to boost protein per gallon of milk.
• Row crop farmers are contracting for specialty soybeans and pulse crops that align with plant-based proteins.
• CPG companies are acquiring plant-based protein startups to diversify their portfolios.
• Retailers are investing in AI-driven inventory systems to respond in real time to evolving consumer patterns.

Final Thoughts: A Thinner Demand Curve, A Smarter Supply Chain