Western Water, La Niña, and the 2025–26 Growing Season: What Western Farmers Should Expect

Water is the West’s most valuable input. As we move into the 2025–26 water year, the climate signal to watch is La Niña, and it’s back on the table. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the Pacific is likely to tip from neutral into La Niña this fall (about 71% odds Oct–Dec), with the signal lingering into winter before easing in early spring. Independent forecasts from Columbia University’s IRI point the same way, with moderate odds of La Niña through boreal winter.  

Why does that matter? In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream shifts north. The Pacific Northwest trends cooler/wetter, while the Southern tier—including California, the Southwest, and parts of the Central/Southern Rockies—leans warmer and drier. That split isn’t a guarantee, but it’s a strong historical tilt that shapes snowpack, reservoir recharge, and field conditions across the West. 

Water supply: Snowpack risk shifts south 

For irrigation districts served by the southern Sierra and lower Colorado Basin, a drier-than-average winter increases the risk of subpar snowpack and tighter surface allocations next season. Meanwhile, a wetter PNW can bolster Columbia/Snake basins and improve early-spring soil moisture for wheat and seed crops in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Keep a close eye on monthly NOAA seasonal outlooks as they update through winter; they’ll color in how strong (or weak) the La Niña pattern looks for your basin.

Currently, drought remains a patchwork story on the ground. The U.S. Drought Monitor is the best weekly pulse on which subregions are tightening or easing. Use the West view to spot county-level stress and plan winter water moves accordingly. U.S. Drought Monitor+1 

Yields and prices: where La Niña bites—and where it helps 

• Rain-fed small grains (PNW): If La Niña delivers on the wet tilt, winter wheat in the Northwest can benefit from improved soil moisture and cooler temps. That supports stands and tillering—a mild positive for yield potential—though cold snaps or persistent cloud cover can complicate disease pressure.  
• Specialty crops (CA & Southwest): For almonds, grapes, processing tomatoes, leafy greens, and vegetables, the primary risk is water availability and cost if the southern storm tracks are missed. Recent years have already forced acreage rationalization in almonds (ongoing orchard removals and a reduction in total acres), a signal that water and economics are reshaping supply. If allocations tighten again, expect selective pullbacks in planted area and higher per-unit costs, which can translate to firmer prices for water-intensive crops. 
• Processing tomatoes: Drought and heat have shown that they can squeeze California tomato output, rippling into paste and ketchup markets, with higher prices when supply tightens. La Niña doesn’t doom tomatoes, but a drier winter raises the odds of tighter irrigation budgets and production risk heading into 2026 contracts.  
• Forage & livestock: When winter/spring moisture underperforms in the Southwest and interior West, hay yields fall and prices rise, pressuring cow-calf economics. That often triggers earlier culling and smaller herds, thereby tightening the beef supply down the road. We observed this dynamic during recent drought years, marked by elevated hay prices and herd contraction.  

The headline: La Niña skews risk, not destiny. For water-reliant regions of the West, plan for tighter belts; for the Northwest, be ready to seize wetter windows. 

What to do now: five practical moves for Western farms 

• Lock in a water plan early. Talk with your district and pump advisors now. If you rely on allocations from the southern Sierra or Colorado River systems, sketch Tier 1 (base) and Tier 2 (cut) plans so crop and irrigation choices aren’t reactive in March. 
• Prioritize water for the highest returns. If allocations drop, rank fields by gross margin per acre-foot. Permanent crops with strong long-run economics and high water productivity go first; low-margin annuals or late plantings become flex acres. 
• Tighten irrigation efficiency. Improve distribution uniformity before purchasing more water. Pressure-regulate, repair leaks, clean screens/emitters, and verify scheduling with soil moisture sensors or ET-based targets. Irrigation accounts for only 17% of U.S. harvested cropland but generates over half of crop sales efficiency; here, it pays twice.  
• Price risk: hedge inputs and outputs. If you’re exposed to forage shortages, pre-book a portion of the hay needed. Specialty-crop growers should coordinate closely with processors/marketers on contract volumes and water-contingency clauses. When supply wobbles, basis and premiums can move fast. 

A note on transparency and timing 

Seasonal outlooks are probabilistic. La Niña increases the likelihood of a north-wet/south-dry split, but intraseasonal swings (such as atmospheric rivers and cold snaps) still occur. Plan in decision windows: pre-plant (now), mid-winter (snowpack check), and early spring (allocation & soil-moisture update). Revisit acres, blends, and schedules at each window rather than locking everything in today.

The take-home 

For the West, the likely return of La Niña means larger water-supply questions south of approximately 40°N and improved moisture odds in the PNW. That tilt can support small grains in the north while tightening specialty-crop and forage math farther south, nudging yields lower and prices higher where water is scarce and expensive. Use this fall to repair, recalibrate, and reprioritize your goals. If you can grow more crop per drop and line up flexible water and marketing plans, you won’t just endure a dry-leaning winter, you’ll be positioned to profit from it. 

Stay keyed to NOAA’s monthly seasonal updates and the U.S. Drought Monitor to keep your water, crop, and pricing plans current as the pattern evolves.